Subscription Box Business Calculator

Calculate per‑box unit economics, monthly profit, break‑even subscribers, CAC payback, and staffing time for your subscription box. Model subscribers, churn, marketing, shipping, and fulfillment—simple and practical.

Key Benefits:

  • See true per‑box COGS: items, packaging, shipping, labor minutes, and spoilage
  • Forecast monthly profit with subscriber growth, churn, refunds, and marketing
  • Find break‑even subscribers and CAC payback; size how many subs you need
  • Check fulfillment capacity and utilization to plan hiring or outsourcing
  • Run conservative vs optimistic scenarios to de‑risk pricing and item mix
  • Share prefilled scenarios with your team to align on pricing and budgets

Subscription Box Business Calculator

Calculate per‑box unit economics and monthly profit. Model subscribers, churn, marketing, shipping, and fulfillment time.

Share Your Scenario

Copy link with your current inputs

Quick Setup

$

Average billed price per shipment (tax excluded).

Number of paying subscribers receiving this month's box.

New subscribers you expect this month. Leave 0 if using growth %.

%

If > 0, new subs are estimated as current actives × growth%.

%

Percent of actives who cancel each month (e.g., 7%).

Per‑Box Costs

$

Total cost of items placed inside the box.

$

Box, filler, sticker, booklet, etc.

$

Average outbound label cost. Add buffer if zones vary.

Pick, pack, label, and QA time per box.

$

Blended hourly for fulfillment team.

Fixed Costs

$

Paid ads, influencers, affiliates, etc.

$

Rent, software, insurance, and other fixed costs.

Advanced (Optional)

%

Percent of item cost added for damage, loss, or overage.

Hours your team can commit to fulfillment this month.

%

Percent of boxes refunded (damaged, lost in transit).

$

Average net refund cost (product + shipping, net of recovery).

$

Enter your CAC if known; otherwise we estimate it as Marketing / New Subs.

Results

Operating Profit (Monthly)
-$20.00
Contribution: $5,480.00 • Break‑even subscribers: 498

Per‑Box Unit Economics

Price$35.00
Items + Packaging + Shipping$22.00
Labor per box$1.80
Spoilage buffer$0.14
Total COGS per box$23.94
Margin per box$11.06 (31.6%)

Monthly P&L

Boxes shipped500
Revenue$17,500.00
Variable costs$11,970.00
Refunds$50.00
Contribution margin$5,480.00
Fixed costs$5,500.00

Growth & Capacity

New subscribers80
Churned subscribers35
Next month subscribers545
Fulfillment hours needed50.0 h
Utilization16.7%

CAC, Payback & LTV

CAC used$31.25
Payback period2.8 months
Simple LTV$158.00

Frequently Asked Questions

How do I reduce shipping impact?

Use lighter packaging, negotiate carrier rates, offer regional boxes, and consider pickup points where viable. Small reductions in average shipping per box dramatically improve margin.

What if I offer a discounted first box?

Estimate the average first‑month discount and ensure your unit margin remains positive. If not, rely on strong retention (low churn) to recover CAC and discounts within your target payback—ideally 2–6 months.

How do I handle seasonal spikes?

Run separate scenarios for peak months vs average. Ensure capacity and cash flow can handle spikes; outsourcing fulfillment for peak months can smooth utilization.
Results are estimates for informational purposes only. Consult professionals for important decisions.

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